Koei Tecmo on Oct. 19 raised its forecast for the six months through September 2026, lifting ordinary profit to ¥25bn, up 108.3%. Sales and other profit forecasts also increased, but the full-year outlook was unchanged.
Key facts
Koei Tecmo raised its forecasts for first-half sales, operating profit, ordinary profit and net profit for fiscal 2027. Figures are shown in order of previous forecast, revised forecast and prior-year result. Percentage changes are the company’s figures.
| Metric | Previous forecast (¥100m) | Revised forecast (¥100m) | Prior-year result (¥100m) | Change from previous forecast (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 340 | 370 | 312.7 | 8.8 |
| Operating profit | 70 | 115 | 79.6 | 64.3 |
| Ordinary profit | 120 | 250 | 178.0 | 108.3 |
| First-half net profit | 90 | 180 | 134.7 | 100.0 |
Forecast earnings per share for the first half were revised to ¥53.87 from ¥27.69. The prior-year result was ¥42.61. The percentage changes are against the previous forecasts, not the prior-year results, but all revised profit forecasts are above the corresponding prior-year figures.
The main reason for raising sales and operating profit forecasts is strong sales of major titles released in the previous fiscal year, along with back-catalog games. On the profit side, non-operating income and expenses are also expected to come in better than planned, prompting revisions to forecasts for ordinary profit and net profit attributable to owners of the parent.
The operating profit upgrade, together with an expected improvement in non-operating income and expenses, supported the increase in ordinary profit. However, the disclosure did not provide a specific breakdown or amount for non-operating income and expenses, so the earnings growth cannot be attributed to game sales alone.
Koei Tecmo is not changing its consolidated full-year earnings forecast for now. It said it will continue to assess the outlook while monitoring the business environment and financial-market trends.
The revised first-half forecasts are above prior-year results, providing a tailwind for earnings, but Koei Tecmo has not incorporated the gains into its full-year plan. Investors will watch whether strong sales of major titles and older games continue, as well as how the outlook for non-operating income and expenses is reflected in future full-year forecasts.
Analyst take
The revised first-half forecasts put sales and all profit measures above their prior-year levels. The ordinary profit upgrade also reflects non-operating income and expenses expected to beat plan, while the full-year outlook remains unchanged. Investors will look for signs that sales momentum and the non-operating contribution can be sustained.
