JPX: Raises FY2027 net profit forecast 27% on trading boom

The upward revision raises all key metrics from the previous forecast issued on April 28, 2026. Operating revenue is now seen at ¥241.5 billion, up 17.8% from the earlier ¥205.0 billion estimate. Operating profit jumps 26.5% to ¥145.5 billion, while net profit attributable to owners of parent climbs 27.1% to ¥98.5 billion. Compared with the prior year’s actual net profit of ¥79.1 billion, the new forecast represents a 24.5% increase and would mark a record high. Earnings per share are projected at ¥96.40, up from ¥75.85 previously.

JPX’s revenue is highly sensitive to trading volumes, so this revision is a direct reflection of the buoyant equity market.

The immediate driver is an upward adjustment to the assumed daily average trading value, which has been raised to ¥10.2 trillion from ¥7.5 trillion in April. Derivatives assumptions were also lifted: TOPIX futures to 87,000 units (up 1,000) and Nikkei 225 options to ¥30 billion (up ¥4.5 billion). Long-term JGB futures and Nikkei 225 futures were left unchanged.

The Japanese stock market has seen the Nikkei 225 recover above the 40,000 level since late 2025, supported by improving corporate earnings and sustained foreign investor inflows, a trend that has continued into fiscal 2026. The expansion of the new NISA program and ongoing corporate governance reforms have encouraged broader retail participation, underpinning trading volumes. Market observers note that further upward revisions remain possible given current momentum. JPX stated the revision is based on reasonable assumptions, while also acknowledging market fluctuation risks.

Alongside the earnings upgrade, JPX raised its annual dividend forecast to ¥77 per share (interim ¥38, year-end ¥39), a ¥16 increase from the prior year’s ¥61. The move aligns with its policy of distributing at least 60% of profits, and the projected payout ratio for fiscal 2027 is approximately 78.2%, compared with about 77% in the previous year. Compared with the earlier dividend forecast (¥61), the increase is 26.2%, matching the profit jump. The group continues to balance financial stability and clearinghouse risk provisions with a clear commitment to enhancing shareholder returns. Some investors anticipate that additional share buybacks may follow, and the strong dividend increase is likely to bolster market sentiment. The consistent shareholder-focused approach is underscored by the sharp dividend hike, and further capital returns are highly anticipated if market activity remains robust.