EnerGia: Chudenko tender lifts net profit forecast to ¥35bn

EnerGia will tender part of its Chudenko holdings in the company’s share buyback offer. It plans to retain a stake after the sale, seeking to improve capital efficiency by optimizing its capital relationship with Chudenko.

The tender offer period runs from Nov. 2 to Dec. 1, 2026. If the number of shares tendered exceeds Chudenko’s planned purchase amount, shares will be accepted on a pro rata basis, meaning EnerGia may not be able to sell all the shares it tenders. Rather than exit entirely, EnerGia plans to retain a stake while improving capital efficiency.

For the fiscal year ending March 2027, EnerGia raised its consolidated sales forecast but lowered its forecasts for operating and ordinary profit. It also raised its forecast for net profit attributable to owners of the parent, although the figure is expected to fall short of the previous year’s result.

On a consolidated basis, sales are ¥140 billion higher than the previous forecast, while operating profit is ¥9 billion lower and ordinary profit is down ¥2 billion. The net profit forecast rises by ¥4 billion, but remains ¥33.539 billion below the previous year. On a non-consolidated basis, net profit is also forecast above the previous estimate, while operating and ordinary profit are expected to be well below their previous-year levels.

The revised outlook factors in gains from higher electricity sales volumes and a review of transmission charges, as well as headwinds including fuel costs. EnerGia said consolidated ordinary profit will fall short of its previous forecast, while gains from securities sales will lift net profit above that estimate.

• Electricity sales volume: Non-consolidated total sales volume is projected at 62.1 billion kilowatt-hours, up from the previous forecast of 60.4 billion kWh. The previous-year result was 56.81 billion kWh.
• Factors weighing on profit: Fuel cost adjustment timing differences are expected to widen amid higher fuel prices, while the supply-demand balance is also forecast to worsen.
• Factors supporting profit: EnerGia expects improved earnings from a review of transmission charges and has included securities sale gains in its net profit forecast.

Operating profit and net profit are moving in different directions, making it difficult to assess improving business conditions from the higher net profit forecast alone. Fuel prices and changes in supply and demand will remain key influences on earnings.

If all tendered shares are sold, EnerGia expects to book a gain on the sale of shares in an affiliated company in the fiscal year ending March 2027. The expected amount differs between its non-consolidated and consolidated accounts.

• Expected gain: About ¥28 billion in non-consolidated accounts and about ¥5 billion in consolidated accounts.
• Condition for recognition: The tender offer must succeed and all 6.3 million shares tendered must be sold. If tenders exceed the offer amount, shares will be accepted on a pro rata basis and EnerGia may not be able to sell all of them.
• Policy after the sale: EnerGia will retain its Chudenko stake and continue cooperation with the EnerGia Group.

EnerGia plans to review the capital relationship while preserving Chudenko’s management independence and autonomy, and to deepen cooperation in areas such as grid-scale batteries and data centers. The sale gain is a one-off earnings factor and should be viewed separately from the lower operating and ordinary profit forecasts.