JPX revised its full-year consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 upward, projecting operating profit of 154.5 billion yen, a 6.2% increase from the previous period. The exchange also boosted its annual dividend per share by 34.4% to 82 yen.
JPX has comprehensively raised its full-year consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 (April 2026 to March 2027). The defining feature of this revision is a growth rate that significantly exceeds previous actuals. Operating profit was raised by 90 billion yen, or approximately 32.8%, from the prior year's record of 116.289 billion yen to 154.5 billion yen. Additionally, Net income is now forecast at 105 billion yen, a 32.7% year-on-year increase from the previous year's 79.139 billion yen. This improvement stems directly from increased trading volumes driven by market activity, indicating that an improved trading environment is directly boosting profit structures.
Specific factors for the revision include raising the daily average trading value of stocks and ETFs (including Prime, Standard, Growth, and TOKYO PRO Markets) to 11 trillion yen, a 800 billion yen increase from the previous forecast. Daily average contracts for long-term government bond futures are set at 52,000 units (up 1,000), and TOPIX futures at 88,000 units (also up 1,000). While Nikkei 225 stock index futures saw a slight decrease of 3,000 contracts to 133,000 units, the overall impact remained positive due to an 85 billion yen increase in index option transactions to 38.5 billion yen.
| Item | Previous Forecast (A) | Revised Forecast (B) | Change Amount | Change Rate (%) | Prior Year Actual | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Revenue | 241.5 billion yen | 252.5 billion yen | +11 billion yen | +4.6% | 198.7 billion yen | +27.0% |
| Operating Profit | 145.5 billion yen | 154.5 billion yen | +9 billion yen | +6.2% | 116.3 billion yen | +32.8% |
| Net Income | 100.5 billion yen | 107 billion yen | +6.5 billion yen | +6.5% | 81.4 billion yen | +31.5% |
| Income Attributable to Owners | 98.5 billion yen | 105 billion yen | +6.5 billion yen | +6.6% | 79.1 billion yen | +32.7% |
While operating revenue increased by 4.6% to 252.5 billion yen, the contribution to profit improvement is more pronounced, suggesting that significant economies of scale are taking effect relative to cost structures.
Following the earnings forecast upgrade, JPX significantly raised its dividend guidance. While maintaining the traditional target payout ratio of 60% or higher, the company is factoring in the increase in net income attributable to shareholders. The annual dividend per share has increased by 5 yen (approximately 6.5%) from the previous estimate of 77 yen to 82 yen.
Breaking this down, the interim dividend for the second quarter was raised from 39 yen to 41 yen, and the year-end dividend was also increased from 40 yen to 41 yen. Compared to the prior year's actual of 61 yen, this represents a strong shareholder return policy with a 34.4% year-on-year increase. This move demonstrates a clear commitment to returning profits to shareholders in line with growth, while balancing financial health and risk reserves as a financial products exchange group, ensuring adequate investment opportunities for market competitiveness.
With these revisions, the basic earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year ending March 2027 will expand from 76.81 yen in the previous year to 102.90 yen. Consequently, the effective payout ratio is expected to reach approximately 80%, significantly exceeding the previous target. For investors, this is a favorable development as it clarifies that profit expansion from increased trading volumes will directly translate into dividends.
Although standard disclaimers regarding potential variability due to various factors are included, the inclusion of specific numerical references tied to market conditions, such as the 11 trillion yen trading volume, indicates a high level of confidence and transparency from management regarding future prospects.
Analyst take
This revision for JPX goes beyond mere number adjustments, highlighting the company's ability to convert market vitality into profits. Most notably, while the formal target payout ratio is a modest 60%, the actual plan aims for roughly 80%, signaling substantial capacity for returns conscious of cost of equity capital. For job seekers, the continued expansion of stable transaction fee revenues underscores the industry's strongest profit base, though attention should remain on diverging trends in specific futures contracts.
